Praedict Two Days Before UP Election

Hung House in UP; BJP and SP in neck & neck race

Two days before a seven-phase election kicks off in Uttar Pradesh, bookies in the Satta Bazaar are predicting a hung assembly, with the BJP and the Samajwadi Party-Congress coalition seen to be finishing neck and neck
After the Reserve Bank of India’s money policy review, state elections will be the next big risk event for the domestic equity market.
Market watchers say the outcome of the assembly polls in Uttar Pradesh could prove to be a big trigger for the market in the near term. The state goes to vote in seven phases beginning from February 11.
Data from unofficial sources suggests the BJP and the SP-led coalition are in a close race with the Mayawati-led BSP a distant third.
According to unconfirmed reports, odds on the BJP and the SP coalition winning 130 seats in the 403-member UP Assembly are pegged at 30 paise on every rupee bet. The higher the odds, the lower are the chances of a party winning that many seats.
UP is India’s largest state with 138 million voters and has a strong clout in the Upper House of Parliament, where the ruling BJP alliance is in minority, which has been proving to be a handicap for the government in pushing many of its reformist policies.
In the past two years, the BJP has not been faring too well in the state elections, with the party facing debacles in key power centres like Bihar and Delhi.
The first phase of UP election will start on February 11, but a new survey showed 40 per cent of its voters still do not know which political party they will vote for.This Story published in ET