That state, Uttar Pradesh, is home to more than 200 million people. If it were its own country, it would be neck-and-neck with Brazil for fifth-most populous in the world. Almost one in six Indians lives there.
So it shouldn’t come as a surprise that its elections are a big deal. Voting for state legislators is now underway, and will take place in seven stages through early March. If Prime Minster Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (Indian People’s Party) wins, he will gain a majority in the national legislature and can pass sweeping economic reforms that have remained stuck until now.
A loss would be a stinging rebuke of the policies Modi has been able to enact during his three years in office. He won a landslide victory with promises of development and “good days ahead,” but his bungled rollout of the invalidation of most of the country’s currency notes has led many to second-guess him. Most polls initially had the BJP winning handily, but numbers have since tightened. Releasing exit polls is illegal until all voting phases are complete.
Casteism is rife in Uttar Pradesh, as is poverty. About a fifth of the state is classified as Dalit, the lowest rung on the caste ladder. Another fifth belong to the “forward castes” — the highest rung. Yet another fifth is Muslim. The rest belong to a smattering of communities somewhere in between. For generations, politics have played out communally, with parties standing candidates from different castes and religions in hopes of carving out whole blocs of votes.
The BJP is hoping to appeal beyond caste. The party’s campaign has relied almost solely on Modi’s popularity — they have not even named a candidate to run the state if they win — and a broad message of progress. If Modi wins as predicted and gains unfettered control of parliament in Delhi, he’ll finally get the chance to fully demonstrate what “progress” means to him. — Max Bearak
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